Overall, the predictions we are forming, based on CMHC, BCREA and other industry experts and new articles, are that we can anticipate an increase in the number of sales, but not gains in pricing. That said, we are not expecting a decline in prices as we saw in 2019, but a more stable market in 2020 with further recovery expected in 2021. The factors that would contribute to a decrease in sale prices would be an influx of properties coming to the market i.e. increase in inventory. A shortage of listings could cause prices to increase slightly.
Price drops have levelled out and there is pent-up buyer demand, which is indicative of the anticipated increase in home sales. For more information on this, please click here to read the CBC article.
“We didn’t see typical seasonal patterns in 2019. Home buyer demand was quieter in the normally busy spring season and it picked up in the second half of the year,” Ashley Smith, REBGV president said. “In terms of home values, prices dipped between two and four per cent across the region last year depending on property type.”
“Home buyer confidence was a factor throughout the year. In the first quarter, many prospective buyers were in a holding pattern, waiting to see how prices would react to the mortgage stress test, new taxes, and other policy changes,” Smith said. “Confidence started to return in the summer, and we saw above average sales in the final quarter of 2019.”
“In terms of home values, prices dipped between two and four per cent across the region last year depending on property type,” Smith said in a statement.
From today’s Business in Vancouver’s article, “the purchasing that has been going on here the last two quarters or so is largely stress test mitigation-based,” Dane Eitel said. He is referring to summer’s easing up of government rules on the mortgage stress test. “All the folks that had been sidelined are now out purchasing.” Eitel predicts detached home prices will begin to turn around in 2021.
“Vancouver’s housing prices saw large gains from 2015 to 2017 that were unrelated to local incomes, prompting a flurry of intervention by all three levels of government. The current downturn reflects the ongoing stabilization of the market”, said Andy Yan, director of SFU’s City Program.
Canadian businesses are borrowing less cash. Generally speaking, this means businesses have maxed out their credit or maxed out their growth. This may indicate a slow down in the economy is coming. Read more about this in Better Dwelling’s article from December 30, 2019.
North Vancouver detached market was a seller’s market in December. On average, most homes are selling for almost 6 per cent below list. This is in line with November. Sellers in Edgemont, Lynn Valley and Upper Lonsdale did well last month while buyers found good opportunities between $3,000,000 and $3,500,000. We are continuing to see great opportunities for buyers in the luxury market.
Note: A consistent sellers’ market for a sustained period of time will put upward pressure on price while a buyers’ market over a sustained period of time will put downward pressure on price.
On average, it took 56 days to sell a home in December. The sweet spot for sales was between $1,250,000 and $1,500,000. We see the price band between $1,500,000 and $2,000,000 picking up.
Listing in the Winter Market could be a great opportunity for sellers as we expect fewer homes on the market in winter than in spring. We expect to see consistent pricing throughout the spring and winter markets. Our prediction is based on stable supply and demand. Should either go up or down significantly this will change. Keep up to date with our newsletter. Call us for information on your neighbourhood market.
The REBGV stated that, “residential home sales in the region totalled 2,016 in December 2019, an 88.1 per cent increase from the 1,072 sales recorded in December 2018, and a 19.3 per cent decrease from the 2,498 homes sold in November 2019”.
Prices have stabilized. We expect fewer homes listed in the Winter than Spring. We recommend sellers list in the Winter Market as the Spring Market may have an influx of listings that could cause prices to dip and correct again.
After analyzing the REBGV stats, the North Vancouver market experienced price declines from January to December. The aggregate median price of a detached home decreased from $1,675,000 to $1,550,000 from the same time last year. Meanwhile, the aggregate median price of a condominium decreased $655,000 in 2018 to $620,000 in 2019. The aggregate median price of a townhome decreased slightly from $995,000 in 2018 to $985,000.
We are passionate about real estate and driven to do the best for you – our clients, family and friends. We love your referrals. Referrals keep our business thriving. Referrals and repeat clients are the core of our business. Thank you for all the referrals and phone calls this month!
Now, lets get to the numbers…
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in North Vancouver is currently $1,028,300. This represents a decline of 3 per cent from the MLS® HPI over the last year and up 4.7 per cent over the last 3 years, up 45.9 per cent over the last 5 years and up 65.3 per cent over the last 10 years. The gains are consistent over the last 5 and 10 year period with September 2019. These numbers indicate that prices are stabilizing.
There were 56 detached sales in December 2019, less than the 78 detached sales recorded in November 2019 and slightly higher than the 41 sales recorded in December 2018. The benchmark price for detached properties was $1,513,300. This represents a decline of 2.1 per cent over the last year and a decline of 5.2 per cent over the last 3 years, an increase of 43.2 per cent over the last 5 years and an increase of 71.8 per cent over the last 10 years. The declines are shrinking which is positive and indicates pricing stabilization.
The detached market is a seller’s market with a sales ratio of 29 per cent and a build up of 3.5 months worth of inventory. This tells us that nearly 3 out of 10 homes were priced properly while 7 homes out of 10 were not priced properly and did not sell. The average detached listing sat on the market for 56 days in December 2019, 59 days in December 2018 and 44 days in November 2019. Homes are selling on average for 93.9 per cent of list price. The detached inventory peaked in May 2019 at 475 listings and has been declining since. In keeping with what we traditionally see happen in early December, we expect the remaining listings to come off the market for Christmas and recycle in January or Spring next year.
North Vancouver saw 74 apartment sales in December 2019 that is up 111% from 35 in December 2018. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $549,700, a 3 per cent decline from December 2018. This represents an increase of 18.8 per cent over the last 3 years, an increase of 50.2 per cent over the last 5 years and an increase of 58.3 per cent over the last 10 years. The 10 year gains for apartments shrank in the second half of the year. This is indicative of what we usually see in the market with condos being the last property type to be hit by changes in the market.
The condo market is a sellers market with a sales ratio of 47 per cent and a build up of just over 1 month worth of inventory. The average condo listing sat on the market for 39 days consistent with December 2018 and November 2019. Condos are selling on average for 97.3 per cent of list price. Approximately 2 out of 10 sellers priced their condos correctly while 8 out of 10 sellers did not.
Attached property sales in December 2019 totalled 21 consistent with December 2018. The benchmark price of a North Vancouver townhome property is $928,500, which represents a 6.6 per cent decrease from December 2018. This represents an increase of 9.7 per cent over the last 3 years, an increase of 49.8 per cent over the last 5 years and an increase of 64.4 per cent over the last 10 years.
The attached market is in a sellers market position with a sales ratio of 33 per cent and a build up 3 months worth of inventory. The average attached listing sat on the market for 42 days consistent with December 2018. Attached properties are selling for 97.4 per cent of list and 3 townhome sellers out of 10 priced their homes appropriately for the market while 7 did not.
Looking for more info? Call us, we are always happy to help.
Data courtesy of the REBGV (Stats-Pkg-December-2019), REBGV Realtor® Report, BCREA and Snapstats® Click the links to view the reports.